Barry Crane was widely recognized as a (the) top matchpoint player of all time. Crane had a reputation for slaughtering weaker pairs. One of his interesting principles was a rule for deciding on drop vs finesse when the defenders have only Kxx. This quiz is about justifying or rejecting that principle.
Barry’s rule: When you lead toward the ace, if the second hand plays the middle card, then finesse; if she/he plays the smallest card, play the ace.
Example 1: Missing K 7 2. You lead the Q and second hand plays the 7.
Barry’s rule says to play small from Dummy. Is the rule right here? What justification is there for the finesse?
Example 2: Missing K 7 2. You lead the Q and second hand plays the 2.
Barry’s rule says to play the ace. Is the rule right here? What justification is there for the drop?
Some things to consider:
Apriori probabilities–The two 3-0 distributions each have an 11% probability. The six 2-1 distributions each have a 13% probability.
Rule of restricted choice–When comparing two distributions, if one of them could have been played differently, then that distribution is less likely. (Classic example is when missing QJxx, RHO plays the J under ace. QJ doubleton is less likely than singleton J)
Patrick’s principle of novice defenders–When declarer is running a suit, novice defenders play their small cards from lowest on up.
After you make your analysis of Barry’s rule, click here to see Patrick’s Assessment.
That’s some toupee, Barry.